Line Calls, Roland Garros Women’s Betting Preview: Fliers (Keys), Fades (Coco) and Pick to Win

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We have been treated to an exciting clay-court season thus far, but the best is yet to come as the action moves to Paris. Iga Swiatek just won Madrid and Rome in the same season for the first time, and is already a three-time champion at Roland Garros. Is a fourth all but assured? Or will Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina or Coco Gauff—or somebody off the radar—emerge victorious?

Keep reading for some players to keep an eye on when betting the Roland Garros future market.

Fliers
Mirra Andreeva (+3800): Andreeva is coming off a first-round loss in Rome to Paula Badosa, but there’s no reason she can’t make a run at Roland Garros. Before that defeat, Andreeva went all the way to the Madrid quarterfinals, earning wins over Linda Noskova, Marketa Vondrousova and Jasmine Paolini before running into a red-hot Sabalenka. Realistically, the 17-year-old will like her chances against anybody that isn’t in the Sabalenka ball-bashing category.

Andreeva is such a good returner; she’s breaking serve at 43.5% this season. Combined with her ability to defend the baseline, Andreeva just needs to be solid when it comes to her own serving. If she is, she should be able to outlast 80% of the players in the world in these conditions. Keep an eye on her price to win her quarter once the draw comes out—she’ll be live to do that as long as she avoids Swiatek and Sabalenka.

Madison Keys (+11000): Keys excels on hard courts and grass, but she made the semifinals at Roland Garros in 2018. Keys also has a 72-46 record on the dirt in her career—did you know that she has a higher winning percentage on clay than on hard courts? She’s dangerous everywhere, and her play in Madrid and Rome proved that. Keys made the semifinals in Madrid, where she lost 6-1, 6-3 to Swiatek. She then made the quarterfinals in Rome, losing to Swiatek by the same scoreline. But Keys still earned wins over players like Gauff, Ons Jabeur and Beatriz Haddad Maia.

It’s hard not to like her chances of making some things happen in Paris. Like Andreeva, you should look to Keys to potentially make a run to the semis. Keys is really strong as a returner, she has the ability to blast opponents off the court when she’s serving well, and her power from the baseline is tough to deal with even in slow conditions.

Coco Gauff (+750): Gauff made the Australian Open semis earlier in the year, and she has a great overall record on the season. But the American’s forehand is still extremely exploitable. The slow terre battue should give her a little more time to set her feet and rip that shot, but the best players in the world will be able to speed her up. And given that Gauff’s hold percentage is down from 73.4% in 2023 to 69.9% in 2024—with her double fault percentage rising from 5.1% to 8.9%,—she is no longer trustworthy against top-tier talent.

Gauff should be able to figure out a way to contend for titles at Roland Garros eventually, but there are a few too many holes in her game right now.

Ons Jabeur (24-1): Jabeur is a three-time Grand Slam runner-up, so you could be forgiven for seeing a big number next to her name and taking a shot on her. However, she’s just 6-9 this season, and her decline dates back to the end of 2023. While the Tunisian has made some strides in recent weeks, her eary-round loss to Sofia Kenin in Rome shows that she still has a lot of work to do.

Until Jabeur’s hold percentage and break percentage start approaching her normal levels, she’s a player to consider fading. Her baseline game is also a bit of a mess right now. With that in mind, you’re going to want to pass on her in the futures market, and you might want to consider betting against her in the early rounds.