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It really IS Swiftenomics! Bank of England could delay cutting interest rate to September after Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour boost to UK economy, experts claim
The Bank of England could delay cutting interest rates until September as the UK economy is boosted by Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour, analysts have claimed.
The pop star has already played sell-out shows in Edinburgh, Liverpool and Cardiff as well as three in London – and will head back to Wembley this August for five more.
Swift’s fans, known as ‘Swifties’, are expected to boost the London economy alone by £300million as the capital hosts more Eras Tour shows than any other city in the world, with nearly 640,000 people expected to attend across the eight dates.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted last Thursday to keep interest rates unchanged at a 16-year high of 5.25 per cent for the seventh time in a row.
Many analysts expect the next cut to be in August, but experts at London investment bank TD Securities believe the economic boost Swift’s concerts are giving Britain is so significant that it could be enough to defer the reduction until September.
They said: ‘We still anticipate a BoE cut in August, but the inflation data for that month might keep the MPC on hold in September.’
The analysts pointed out that a potential clash with one of Swift’s Wembley concerts between August 15 and 20 and a key inflation index day could skew the data and influence the MPC’s decision.
Mr Krishan and Mr Rossiter added that a ‘surge in hotel prices then could be material’, temporarily adding as much as 30 basis points to services inflation and 15 basis points on headline inflation.
They also said that while her Cardiff date coincided with this month’s inflation index day, the impact would have been lesser given the smaller size of the city to London and just one date there.
The Bank did not respond specifically to the comments by TD Securities when contacted by MailOnline today, but a spokesman said that the MPC ‘look at a wide range of economic indicators when they make their decisions on interest rates’.
It comes after a Barclays ‘Swiftonomics’ report issued last month found Swift’s tour is expected to provide a £997million boost to the UK economy.
Some 1.2million fans are estimated to be spending an average of £848 on tickets, travel, accommodation, outfits and other costs to see the star at one of her 15 UK tour dates – more than 12 times the average cost of a night out.
But Oxford University research economist Ben Ramanauskas said that while Swift will have an impact on local economies, it would be a mistake to delay an interest rate change.
He wrote in the Evening Standard: ‘We do see an increase in demand for services such as those in hospitality whenever there is a Swift concert. This will worry the MPC, not least of all services inflation has remained stubbornly high in the UK, but it shouldn’t base its decision on this.